World Events Summary – H1 2017

Trump, Trump, Trump: it seems that from most perspectives the Trump Administration has sucked the air out of all other international and geopolitical concerns. This was evidenced by the UN decrying the amount of media interest in Trump while they were calling for international assistance in preventing/alleviating a building famine in Africa that endangers the lives of tens of millions. 

Trade: the expected change from Trump the candidate to Trump the president happened least in this area. After railing against ‘unfair’ to America trade policies since the 1980s it should be no surprise that he sought to act on the rhetoric. NAFTA is about to be renegotiated with Canada and Mexico, the TPP was repudiated and major bilateral surplus states were pushed to reduce them. 

India: the BJP managed to undertake some radical economic reforms: the national sales tax and demonetisation. The GST was always going to be tough to coordinate and agree with the multiple constituencies but some of its utility has been eroded by unnecessary complexity. Demonetisation appears to have been an own-goal which failed to achieve its stated aim of defunding criminals.

Eurozone Travails: genuine worries about the sustainability of the unfinished Euro architecture combined with the rise of non-traditional political parties in 2017. These trends have abated, for now, in the face of a cyclical Eurozone GDP rebound and the success of centrist parties in major elections. Macron has given the European project its first chance in years to truly renew itself.