• Nations Parting: referendums in Catalonia and Iraq’s Kurdistan were both claimed as victories by the local politicians who called them. Surprisingly, given it is at peace and in the heart of Europe, Spain was the venue for violence related to the vote. Claims and counter-claims abound but it is clear that Madrid lost the PR war and is boxed-in so that any concessions it might make will encourage others. 

  • Separatism: given that most nation states have been derived from messy historical processes, including war and imperialism, any redrawing of boundaries will inspire others from within that region and outside of it. Cameroonian Anglophone separatists saw seven protesters killed by soldiers amidst independence demonstrations and Biafra secessionism in Nigeria is making a comeback. 

  • Trump’s Base: the establishment candidate (backed by Trump) in the Alabama Senate primary lost to an extreme opponent backed by Steve Bannon and former Tea party activists. This group claimed they were fighting for Trump – to stop him being captured by the establishment. The outcome is most damaging for Republican leaders in the House and Senate – seen as weak and out-of-step.