• Arms Control: the Trump administration started the six-month process to withdraw from the 1987 Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty on the grounds of alleged Russian cheating. The bigger issue seems to have been that China was not a signatory to the deal (just the U.S. and U.S.S.R agreed it). China is seen as having built up an arsenal within the proscribed ranges, forcing Russia to counter it. Next Steps: Trump has indicated a willingness to agree a new deal, including China, but this is unlikely in the near-term. Russia is saber-rattling, as this agreement was a prestige holdover from its days as a superpower. Macron has been busy trying to arrange a Paris meeting with Putin and Trump to discuss matters. Overall, this is a recognition of the inevitable, but it raises the costs further for European defence. Saudi Arabia: the killing of Khashoggi continued to dominate headlines and policy discussions around the world. Companies, countries and individuals have been forced to make a choice between support for the Saudi regime or some other path. Germany’s coalition government, including the left-wing SPD, could be forced to ban all weapons sales to Saudi – something that would realign European defence supply chains.
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