• Saudi Arabia: stated that Khashoggi died inside its Turkish consulate, while an intelligence squad attempted to detain him. The Crown Prince (MBS) was said to be innocent of the affair and two senior officials have been dismissed. King Salman announced that MBS would lead a project to restructure the intelligence services. Trump has indicated his desire to keep a good relationship with the kingdom. • Saudi Sanctions: congress is likely to take a much tougher line than the president regarding potential punishments – these are likely to generate a response from Riyadh, something we detailed in our note. • Oil: adding extra complexity to a difficult situation, discussions about the potential to remove sovereign immunity for OPEC members deemed to be driving the oil price higher have continued. The NOPEC legislation has languished for years but could get caught up in a wider discussion over U.S.-Saudi ties. OPEC is taking this threat seriously and has, reportedly, asked members not to discuss the oil price in public. • Iran: the U.S. has sanctioned another opaque group associated with Iran’s defence establishment – the Basij Resistance Force. The U.S. also designated Iranian-aligned Lebanese group Hizbollah as one of five top transnational crime threats. Both actions are designed to keep the financial pressure on Iran’s proxies.
Recent Comments