• Brexit: the deal negotiated by PM May has been greeted with near universal derision in the UK. A process designed to reduce a democratic deficit associated with the EU’s unaccountability, and ‘take back control’, has been undermined by poor implementation on the UK side. EU negotiators have skillfully managed to turn the outcome into one where the UK has to choose between losing even more control or no deal. • UK Turmoil: more senior resignations have weakened the government but the outcome of a likely leadership election is unclear. Politicians on all sides seem to be unable to act in the national interest and are defining such a concept to align with their own perceptions of what is best for them personally. A new general election is possible, as is a Labour-led government or a second referendum – more volatility ahead. • EU Overreach: while several examples of painful discipline mechanisms being deployed against member states, e.g. Cyprus or Greece, have been experienced in recent years this is the most damaging. While UK politics is in turmoil a tactical EU victory is almost certain but the potential for unintended consequences abound. A tactical victory could yet lead to a strategic defeat – a likely existential crisis for the EU itself.
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