• Trump: the U.S. media believes the Mueller probe will conclude by the end of 2018, hence the increase in vitriol from the president. Trump’s former personal attorney, Cohen, pled guilty to misleading congress, while the former head of Trump’s campaign had his plea-agreement cancelled due to allegations of lying. Trump’s former tax attorneys were raided this week, after he had submitted written answers to questions. • Trade: the new NAFTA (USMCA) agreement was formally signed by government heads at the G20. The incoming Democrat-led House of Representatives will likely make ratification rather difficult. The incoming Mexican government has already generated substantial market volatility in the peso, due to concerns over the left-wing nature of the president – this increases its vulnerability to any suggestion of U.S. rejection. • Brexit: the deal PM May made with the EU shows increasing signs of stress – over 100 Conservative MPs have said they will vote against it. This makes it near-impossible to pass without a big defection of Labour MPs – something that Corbyn is working to avoid. The real game appears to be how well Remainers, who have worked with Brussels to stymie the Brexit process, can present themselves as innocent by-standers.
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